El Niño 2026-27 · Western US & Canada
A very strong El Niño is building for 2026-27. We looked at how every resort's winter went in the 6 strong El Niño winters since 1980 (1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, 2023-24), measured at the mountain snow gauges nearest each resort and compared with that resort's own 1991–2020 normal. It's a lean, not a forecast. (Lean defn: Think of it as past odds, not a prediction.)
NOAA index, JAS 2026, updated Oct 3
Average winter (Nov–Mar) precipitation in strong El Niño winters versus each resort's normal. Blue: wetter than normal. Red: drier.
Shading blends nearby resorts and is hidden below 700 m on the coast and 1500 m inland. Not a snowfall forecast. Basemap © OpenFreeMap, © OpenStreetMap contributors.
Lean is past winters and So far is this winter, both against normal. Ranked by Lean. In Analog winters, each dot is one past winter and the tick is the average. "Reported" is what the resort reported to SnoCountry in 2015-16 and 2023-24 against its other reported winters (a check on the gauges).
| # | Resort | Lean | So far | Past winters | Analog winters −60% · 0 · +60% | Reported 15-16 |
Reported 23-24 |
Measured at |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ski Apache NM | +70% | — | 4 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 2 | Bear Mountain Resort CA | +54% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 3 | Sandia Peak Ski Area NM | +53% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 4 | Arizona Snowbowl AZ | +47% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 5 | Lee Canyon NV | +45% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 6 | Snow Summit CA | +38% | — | 4 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 7 | Snow Valley Mountain Resort CA | +38% | — | 4 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis | |
| 8 | Pajarito Mountain Ski Area NM | +34% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | SNOTEL: Quemazon (3.1 km) | |
| 9 | Sunrise Park Resort AZ | +32% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | SNOTEL: Baldy (5.7 km), Maverick Fork (11.2 km) | |
| 10 | Ski Santa Fe NM | +31% | — | 5 of 6 above normal | — | — | ERA5 reanalysis |
Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the central Pacific (3-month running mean). Pick which past winters count as look-alikes; the shaded winters drive the map and ranking above.
NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) peak for each winter since 1980. Strong means a peak of +1.5°C or more; very strong, +2.0°C. RONI is shown for context and doesn't change the analogs.
November–March precipitation at the NRCS SNOTEL gauges nearest each resort: up to three, within 40 km, near the resort's elevation, and on record since 1982. At those elevations nearly all winter precipitation falls as snow. Resorts with no suitable gauge (most of Canada, Southern California, Mammoth and a few others) use ERA5 reanalysis snowfall at the resort.
Each winter is a percentage above or below that resort's own 1991–2020 average, so a dry year at a deep-snow resort and a dry year at a small hill read the same way.
A handful of winters is a small sample, and 2026-27 may be stronger than any of them. Strong El Niños tend to split the West north–south: Southern California, the Southwest and southern Colorado lean wetter; the Pacific Northwest, British Columbia, Montana and the northern Rockies lean drier; the Sierra and central Rockies sit in between and swing year to year. Precipitation isn't snow quality or timing.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (ONI, RONI); USDA NRCS SNOTEL; SnoCountry resort snow reports; ERA5 snowfall (monthly averages), which contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information, used under CC BY 4.0. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use of it. Data built 2026-11-02.